CDR Seminar: Nigel Harvey - Forecasting and monitoring time series in business and finance: the role of judgment
- Date
- Wednesday 6 December 2017, 14:00 - 15:00
- Location
- Leeds University Business School, Maurice Keyworth Building, Room 1.03
- Who can attend
- Staff, students, alumni and external guests (registration not required)
Nigel Harvey, Professor of Judgment and Decision Research, University College London, will be delivering the eighth presentation in the Centre for Decision Research’s 2017/18 seminar series.
Abstract
People frequently have to deal with information that appears or has appeared over time. In business and finance, this information is often numerical and may be represented graphically. Generally speaking, psychologists have not shown much interest in how people deal with this type of information – indeed, students, who otherwise received a fairly thorough grounding in statistics, typically learn nothing about time series analysis.
Professor Harvey will provide an overview of some recent work: discussing the role of judgment in forecasting, both in unaided judgmental forecasting and in judgmental adjustment of statistical forecasts. (Both these approaches are common in demand forecasting for supply chain management). He’ll also consider tasks in which people have to decide whether to act on the basis of information provided in time series. For example, financial traders may need to assess how risky it would be trade, given the behaviour of a price series. Finally, I’ll outline some research into tasks in which people have to monitor time series to determine whether there has been a particular type of structural break, such as a change in the level or variance of the series. These types of change are important to detect in many domains, such as medicine and finance.
About the speaker
Nigel Harvey is Professor of Judgment and Decision Research at University College London and Visiting Fellow in the Department of Statistics at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Apart from his research on how people deal with time series information, he works on advice taking, calibration of subjective probabilities, gambling, and ethical decision making.
For further information, contact [email protected].