The Downside of Cognitive Reflection

Abstract

Cognitive reflection is documented to buffer against many judgment biases, with important real-world consequences for decision making. People high in cognitive reflection are documented to make better decisions in financial and health domains and to perform better in forecasting tournaments. The current research asks whether one can be too high in cognitive reflection. In a preregistered study, I document that cognitive reflection is associated with realistic pessimism. I also find that people high in cognitive reflection are less satisfied with their social lives. I consider implications, including for how decision scientists and philosophers conceptualize rationality.

The Speaker

David Comerford researches and teaches in the economics division and the Behavioural Science Centre of the University of Stirling. His research uncovers insights on how people make mistaken judgments and decisions - for instance, judgments of trends over time, judgments of expenditure, and judgments of how an experience will feel.    David works with policy makers and businesses in the USA, the UK and Ireland applying his research findings to improve decision making. He is currently collaborating with the Scottish Government on a project to improve economic forecasts.